BROOKINGS — One week to go. FCS Selection Sunday is days away. And there's a ton at stake on Saturday.
To wit:
No. 4 USD hosts No. 1 NDSU.
No. 2 Montana State hosts No. 9 Montana.
No. 3 South Dakota State visits No. 18 (in the coach's poll) Missouri State.
NDSU can clinch the outright Valley title and likely the No. 1 seed in the playoffs with a win over USD.
If USD beats NDSU and SDSU beats Mo State, the Bison, Jacks and Coyotes tie for the conference title. If all that happens and Montana State wins, the Bobcats are the No. 1 seed and the committee has a doozy of a task in seeding the remaining teams, with No. 5 UC-Davis, No. 6 Incarnate Word, No. 7 Idaho and No. 8 Mercer all ready to move up the ladder.
If Missouri State beats SDSU and USD beats NDSU, the Bison, Coyotes and Bears tie for the conference title, though Missouri State is ineligible for the playoffs as they move up to the FBS level next year.
No matter what happens, the Valley is looking at four teams in the bracket, with Illinois State likely to get in at 8-3. They host North Dakota Saturday with a shot to get to nine wins, but it was announced this week the Redbirds won't be able to host a first-round playoff game due to high school football playoffs at Hancock Stadium.
The NSDSU at USD game is probably the biggest regular season game in Coyotes' history. A chance to knock off the No. 1 team in the nation, clinch their first Valley title and possibly earn a top 2 seed which would guarantee home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Yotes need this win. As dominant as they've been this season, they don't have an especially good win on their resume. If they lose they'd fall to 8-3 overall, and while those losses would be to No. 1 NDSU, No. 3 SDSU and FBS Wisconsin, their best win would be probably Saturday's roadie at UND. It's anyone's guess where the committee would place them in that scenario.
* Mark Farley will coach his final game at UNI on Saturday when the Panthers host Indiana State. The Panthers are 2-9 and 0-7 in the Valley.
It'll be interesting to see whom UNI targets for Farley's replacement and if the new coach is given more resources to work with (or if the new coach can be a fundraiser himself).
* Youngstown State has their bye this week, so their season is over at 4-8, 3-5 in the Valley. They made the playoffs just last year.
* For all the talk of how tough the UND Fighting Hawks can be at home, they just dropped back-to-back games at the Alerus Center to SDSU and USD. They were routed by SDSU and while the USD loss came by one score, the Coyotes dominated most of the way after a slow start.
* The end of the season always brings coaching turnover, but it doesn't seem terribly likely we see any other changes in the Valley beyond Farley's retirement. We shall see.
Scores last week
Youngstown State 39, UNI 38
Illinois State 31, Indiana State 19
Kentucky 48, Murray State 6
NDSU 59, Missouri State 21
SDSU 41, Southern Illinois 10
USD 42, UND 36
This week's games
Murray State at Southern Illinois
North Dakota at Illinois State
Indiana State at UNI
NDSU at USD
SDSU at Missouri State
Standings
NDSU 7-0 (10-1)
SDSU 6-1 (9-2)
USD 6-1 (8-2)
Missouri State 6-1 (8-3)
Illinois State 5-2 (8-3)
Indiana State 3-4 (4-7)
Youngstown State 3-5 (4-8)
North Dakota 2-5 (5-6)
Northern Iowa 0-7 (2-9)
Murray State 0-7 (1-10)
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