BROOKINGS — The USD Coyotes charged onto the scene of FCS contenders last year, bouncing back from a 3-8 season to win 10 games and reach the quarterfinals of the playoffs.
It was the best season in the program's short Division I history, but a 37-3 loss to No. 1 South Dakota State, then a 45-17 home playoff loss to NDSU (whom they'd beaten in Fargo during the regular season) created the perception among many that while the Yotes were a great story and a good team, they were still a full tier below the serious national championship contenders.
That perception surely persisted among some (in the Brookings and Fargo areas, at least) all the way up to Saturday night's primetime clash between USD and SDSU at Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium.
Well, remaining doubters found out in SDSU's 20-17 overtime win. The Coyotes are for real. They're not just 'a good team'. They're not just a playoff contender. They're a serious threat to reach Frisco and win the national championship.
That may seem like high praise for a team that just lost, but consider: SDSU hasn't lost at home since 2021. The only truly close game they've had during that time was last year's 20-16 nailbiter against Montana State. USD not only could've won on Saturday night, you could argue they should have.
We often hear in FCS circles that it's SDSU, NDSU, and everyone else. Well, the Bison knocked off the Jacks last week in a 60-minute brawl and USD very nearly did the same. The Coyotes (who are off this week) will get their shot at the No. 1 ranked Bison in the regular season finale in Vermillion, and based on what we've seen over the last two weeks, that one should be the same kind of slobberknocking, could-go-either-way pick'em that the Jacks' two games with their rivals were.
Both the Jacks and Coyotes still have to go to Grand Forks, and given that UND just lost to Youngstown State, that should be a game they'll both win, but the Alerus Center can be a tough place to play.
SDSU also wraps up the season with a trip to Springfield to play Missouri State. You're forgiven if you haven't noticed (given that Missouri State is ineligible for the FCS playoffs as they transition to FBS) but the Bears have won six in a row and are 4-0 in the Valley.
NDSU hosts UNI this week, then after their bye hosts Missouri State before their trip to the DakotaDome.
So suddenly the 6-2 Bears have a chance to play spoiler on their way out the Valley door. That could really cloud the playoff picture.
Let's say that they don't, however, and there are no upsets at the top of the Valley the rest of the way.
That leaves you with South Dakota State at 10-2, 10-1 against the FCS with only a 4-point road loss to NDSU.
If the Coyotes beat the Bison, they'd be 9-2, 9-1 against the FCS with only an overtime road loss to SDSU, while NDSU would be 10-2, 10-1 against the FCS with only a road loss to USD.
Good luck properly seeding those three in that scenario.
If NDSU were to beat the Coyotes (running the table in the process), they'd be the likely No. 1 seed at 11-1 and 11-0 against the FCS. That would leave USD at 8-3 and 8-2 against the FCS, with the only two losses coming on the road to SDSU and at home to No. 1 NDSU.
There's little question USD is one of the top four teams in the nation, but if they do finish with two FCS losses they could get passed over for a top four seed. The eyeball test only goes so far if you don't have big wins, and if USD doesn't beat the Bison their resume will be lacking one.
Montana State is still undefeated (with an FBS win), while a handful of other teams have just one loss. No. 5 UC-Davis is 7-0 against the FCS and No. 6 Southeast Missouri State is 8-0 against the FCS.
This stuff almost always gets sorted out by the end of the season. UC-Davis still has to play both Montana schools. SEMO has to play 6-2 Tennessee State, not to mention Jed Stugart's Lindenwood Lions (who are 4-5).
Much has been made in recent months about the lack of truly powerful teams at the FCS level, but USD has risen up to give us another one.
Here's hoping the teams at the top can avoid letdowns the rest of the regular season to ensure the playoff bracket is set up to give us a proper final four and Frisco matchup.
The Trust Project
