VERMILLION — The University of South Dakota football team is set to take on North Dakota in its penultimate matchup of the regular season on Saturday in Grand Forks.
While USD enters the game fresh off a 49-0 victory over Indiana State while UND is looking to rebound after a 38-7 loss to SDSU. The Coyotes have historically struggled in Grand Forks but the Fighting Hawks are reeling after losing their third straight game of the season.
With that, here are three things to watch …
Can USD finally leave Grand Forks with a victory?
Earlier this season, the Coyotes broke one losing streak. USD had never won at Youngstown State until this year and now comes another stiff away challenge that has historically been a big struggle.
The Alerus Center is a tough place to play, whether a team is one of the worst in the country or No. 1. However, the Coyotes have especially struggled at UND for nearly 40 years and counting. The last time the Coyotes left Grand Forks with a win in their back pocket was 39 years ago back in 1985.
But if there’s a year where that streak could end, this one certainly looks promising. The Fighting Hawks are reeling at the moment. They’ve lost three straight games, including a home loss last week against South Dakota State 38-7 and four out of their last five. To say that UND is fighting for its playoff life would be an understatement.
That being said, UND knows that a victory on Saturday could rejuvenate its playoff hopes. A victory in this game could be easier said than done.
Can the offense find some third-down success?
If there is one area where the Coyote offense has been inconsistent this season, it’s been on third down. On the season, USD has only converted 41.8 percent of its third-down attempts. That mark is in the bottom half of the conference at seventh-best. And the last two games haven’t been kind on third down either.
Two games ago against SDSU, USD was only 3-for-12 on third down and then last week in the blowout over Indiana State, the Coyotes were only 3-for-10. That’s only a 27% conversion rate over those two games. With strong championship aspirations, those lower conversion numbers have been less than ideal. However, this week should provide a pretty good opportunity for the Coyotes to get on track.
UND’s third-down defense has not been great this season with an average opponent conversion rate of 46.5%. The Fighting Hawks have been the third-worst third-down defense in the Valley and have struggled pretty much all season. Over their three-game losing streak, UND has allowed a 54% conversation rate.
This would be a get-right game for USD on third down. With a very difficult season finale against North Dakota State and the playoffs not far on the horizon, improving those third-down numbers would help this offense sustain drives and provide more rest for the defense.
Can USD dominate the offensive line of scrimmage?
The Fighting Hawks have not been the best team in the trenches on defense. UND is third-worst in the Valley in sacks by (17) and has also been one of the weaker rush defenses as well, allowing 173.6 rush yards per game. That mark is the fourth-worst in the Valley.
Looking at UND’s recent history, the rush defense especially has struggled. The Fighting Hawks have allowed an average of 275 rushing yards per game and close to three rushing touchdowns over their three-game losing streak. In all three of those games as well, the opposing team has had at least one 100-yard rusher.
With the success USD has had in the run game this season, UND provides a favorable matchup for the offensive line. The line should be able to dominate in both pass and rush protection. If that occurs, the offense should be able to operate at a high efficiency.
The Trust Project
